Experts are rarely good at predicting the future because their minds are full of facts from the past. I have a problem with future house price forecasts and it is this almost never materialises.
When you have someone who has a vested interest in the result [QBE is a house insurance player] then take house price forecasts with a grain of salt.A QBE "survey" compiled by BIS Shrapnel says house prices will growth between 9 and 20 per cent in Australia's capital cities over the next three years. Really? So I guess that means that you should be paying 9% to 20% more for your insurance then? I see!
The biggest problems I see with House prices forecasting using median house prices
- The median price is not an actual price. Any house price survey relies on the notion of the median price of a home. These are the homes that are sold.
- There are two problems with this.
- Many homes sold are new, and therefore are usually better than an established home and worth more to buyers.
- Most established homes are dolled up prior to sale [paint jobs, renovations, staging and the like]. They are "pushed" and "promoted" and "marketed" to fetch a higher price. Even then many are not currently selling.
We need a segmentation of median house prices
At least if we got a segmentation of house sales [new apartments, new homes, established homes etc, I would be more comfortable believing these figures. That won't happen because the output is designed to deceive buyers and sellers to believinghouse prices are higher than they are.
Here's an example of how median house prices distort true values.
A new apartment block is released for sale with the penthouses at 2.2 million a piece, and apartments from $400,000.
One of the penthouses is sold, and two older units down the road sell for $220,000.
How median house prices are calculated
The median house price is $2.64 million divided by three. That gives a median unit price of $880,000! Whilst this may seem a silly example it is how median house prices are calculated.
Home buyers might begin to believe that the older units down the road are worth more than $220,000, and the $400,000 are worth more too.
Can you see why median house prices is not a good guide?
What about interest rates affecting housing prices?
Australia's housing market [some say housing bubble] has so far fared better than most parts of the US and the UK markets.
In the US for instance they have 30 year fixed interest rates retailing at under 5% pa., and they could go lower to help keep people in their homes, let alone prop up the housing market. No such luck here in Australia.
Australia's mortgage interest rates will rise over the next twelve months
We face a home mortgage interest rate in Australia of over 8% over the next 12 months.
Whilst the "experts say fix your mortgage interest rates now, that's fine if you are buying now or if you have a variable mortgage already. If you are buying in 12 months time that is not going to help you because I believe that rates will be as much as 1.25% higher than they are now.
Result? I see "median" house prices moderating, and home prices for Joe average softening over the next 12 months.
What Mr Mortgage believes.
Anytime is a good time to buy a house that is well priced and what you need to live in, and is affordable, if you intend to live there for more than 5 years. If not its better to rent and invest the savings and housing costs. If you are an investor, there are better places to park your money.
Australia's "Housing bubble" will not pop but lose some of its froth and just shrink to a less inflated size.
Lower returns for property investors, and more certain yields and easier picking elsewhere will keep investors out of the housing market, and moderate home values.
Future house prices will not be a mirror of our past. The RBA has it eye on house prices and the board will do what ever it takes to keep a lid on the housing market to ensure affordability for future home buyers.
The baby boomer influence has run its course in the general housing market, and as they move out of established housing this will take more heat out of house prices.
Author: Rick Adlam Mr Mortgage
